Would knowing the date of your death influence your actions? It did for Tiberius Caesar. Convinced by the court astrologer Thrasyllus that he had many years of life ahead of him, the paranoid old emperor chose to postpone the murder of his heir Caligula.
But by believing Thrasylluss prediction and letting his guard down, Tiberius inadvertently gave Caligula enough time to poison him first. The rest, as they say, is history which Thrasyllus had altered by deliberately overestimating his employers life expectancy.
While many of us are unlikely to find ourselves in Caesars position, knowing how many years we have left may influence many aspects of our life including when to retire, whether to take a long-awaited vacation, and even whether to opt for certain medical treatments.
My Longevity, a newly developed app from researchers at the University of East Anglia, now allows each of us to be our own life expectancy astrologer. But how much trust should we place in these predictions?
Simply put, life expectancy is how long, on average, members of any given population can expect to life. This is different from lifespan, which is the maximum length of time any member of the species can survive.
Although lifespan has changed very little if at all global life expectancy has soared by more than 40 years since the beginning of the 20th century. This was achieved through a combination of scientific discoveries and public health measures that drove down infant mortality. In the UK, life expectancy at birth is now over 80 years.
Life expectancy depends a lot on where you grow up or live. So the more a disparate population can be broken down into sub-populations who have traits in common but which are still large enough to be statistically significant the more accurate predictions become. Doing this might involve subdividing the population by sex (on average females live longer than males) or smoking status (for obvious reasons) or both.
The team of researchers used a sophisticated version of this approach when developing their app, informed by its previous research. This allows its app to factor in the life expectancy effects of controlled and uncontrolled high blood pressure, the presence of related illnesses such as cardiovascular disease or rheumatoid arthritis, ongoing treatment with statins, and serious risk factors, such as high cholesterol.
Developing the app has involved dealing with some problems along the way in estimating potential health benefits for the overall population based on those seen in clinical trials. This is because discrepancies exist between trial subjects and populations for a number of reasons but usually they are cases of what is known as tight segmentation working against you.
For example, a clinical trial of the effects of orange juice in sailors with scurvy will show profound benefits because they are a tight segment with vitamin C deficiency. But anyone expecting to see the same beneficial effects on health from prescribing orange juice to everyone taking a boat trip today is going to be deeply disappointed.
How seriously you should treat the predictions from an app of this type is basically a function of how accurately it reflects the sub-population into which you best fit. I compared my life expectancy prediction from My Longevity with calculators provided by the UK Office for National Statistics and those of two insurance companies. The predictions varied from 84-90 years. As Im 54, this may not have been a completely fair test of My Longevity because the data the team has used makes the app most accurate for the over 60s.
The major reason life expectancy calculators spit out such different figures is because there are a wide range of factors influencing the results. Being married increases your life expectancy compared to being single, as does being happy. In addition to smoking, levels of fruit and vegetable intake influence life expectancy. Perhaps unsurprisingly, levels of alcohol consumption and exercise make a profound difference to life expectancy. These are concrete lifestyle changes people can make which can add years to their lives.
The East Anglia research team hopes that access to its calculator will encourage users to adopt healthier lifestyles. Although there is some evidence that framing behaviours in terms of their effects on life expectancy is an effective way of encouraging people to embrace healthier lifestyles, superficial discussions of health and longevity often assume that everyone will seek to maximise life expectancy if only they are fed enough of the facts about it.
However, human motivation is emotional and intuitive at its core and is shaped by what a person most values in life. Propositions that accord with a persons values are typically supported. Those that dont are either ignored or rejected.
Another common mistake made by those promoting behaviour change is to assume their own dominant values are shared by the people they want to adopt the behaviour in question. This approach will only convince people who already think and feel like them. But the more developers of such apps recognise that users will only adopt certain behaviours according to their values and beliefs, the more useful these apps will be.
More here:
Longevity app calculates your life expectancy but will it make us healthier? - The Conversation UK
- Inside the longevity lab that aims to help people live longer - TODAY - February 27th, 2024
- I'm a longevity expert these are the 4 supplements I take every day to fight aging - New York Post - February 27th, 2024
- The Longest Living People In the World All Abide by the 'Power 9' Rule - GQ - February 27th, 2024
- Im a longevity expert and there's six things you should do daily if you want to live longer' - Daily Record - February 27th, 2024
- Reducing the metabolic burden of rRNA synthesis promotes healthy longevity in Caenorhabditis elegans - Nature.com - February 27th, 2024
- Presidio Federal's Thad Anderson Receives WashingtonExec's Longevity Award - WashingtonExec - February 27th, 2024
- Faces of wealth, intellect and longevity, as revealed by veteran face reader - The Korea Herald - February 27th, 2024
- I'm a longevity expert here are the best foods to eat for a long and healthy life - New York Post - February 27th, 2024
- Danny Care: 'Pilates Has Helped with the Longevity of My Career' - Men's Health UK - February 27th, 2024
- Give Me This Mountain | Tips for Spiritual Longevity - Harvest.org - February 27th, 2024
- Chris Hemsworth did a 4-day fast to reverse aging. His trainer played a cheeky joke to test his willpower. - Yahoo Canada Shine On - February 27th, 2024
- Pet longevity is a spark about to turn into a wildfire - Longevity.Technology - February 27th, 2024
- The Longevity of Bitcoin's Bull Run; Polkadot and Up-and-Coming Memecoin Draw Crowds - Analytics Insight - February 27th, 2024
- 'This is weird': Experts 'shocked' by record-breaking longevity of Death Valley's phantom lake - Livescience.com - February 27th, 2024
- Understanding the Longevity of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses to Infection and Vaccination - Medriva - February 27th, 2024
- Experts agree: The fasting-mimicking diet may be the key to longevity - Longevity.Technology - February 27th, 2024
- Daily habits of a longevity expert : TED Radio Hour - NPR - December 30th, 2023
- Why does fruitcake last so long? Ingredients and preparation of the dessert play into its longevity - Fox News - December 30th, 2023
- Interviews of 2023: the longevity companies - Longevity.Technology - December 30th, 2023
- Nancy Wilson Discusses Longevity of Heart & Family Drama Within the Band Ahead of New Year's Eve Show in Seattle - American Songwriter - December 30th, 2023
- What Will It Take To Make Super-Aging Not So Super-White? - Well+Good - December 30th, 2023
- Arteta on Moyes and longevity in coaching | Quotes | News - Arsenal.com - December 30th, 2023
- New Years resolution guide: 5 steps to a healthier 2024 from a longevity expert - Fox News - December 30th, 2023
- Interviews of 2023: the longevity visionaries - Longevity.Technology - December 30th, 2023
- The Top 11 Longevity Tips Of 2023, From The mindbodygreen Podcast | mindbodygreen - mindbodygreen - December 30th, 2023
- Why LeBron James' longevity is unmatched in the NBA | Good Word with Goodwill - Yahoo Sports - December 30th, 2023
- Short vs long fasts: What is the ideal length for longevity? - Longevity.Technology - December 30th, 2023
- Centenarians share the secrets to living a long, healthy life - Fox Business - December 30th, 2023
- Rob Lowe on Turning 60 Soon & His Secret to Career Longevity (Exclusive) - Extra - December 30th, 2023
- Investigating the longevity and diversity of South Asian miniature traditions - STIRworld - December 30th, 2023
- The Silent Threat of Hypochondria: Impact on Longevity and Health - Medriva - December 30th, 2023
- Longevity: What lifestyle habits could help you live to 100? - December 22nd, 2023
- Aiming for longevity - Harvard Health - December 22nd, 2023
- How Long Can We Live? - The New York Times - December 22nd, 2023
- This Was the Year of Obsessing Over Longevity - GQ - December 22nd, 2023
- Menopause Age Looms Over Women. Efforts to Prevent it Could Extend Fertility. - Bloomberg - December 22nd, 2023
- Longevity: Is exercise the key to a longer, healthier life? - Medical News Today - December 22nd, 2023
- The #1 Sign You'll Live to 100, According to Longevity Experts - Gwinnettdailypost.com - December 22nd, 2023
- Cowboys Take On Dolphins, How Longevity Factors Into Hall of Fame Election and More - The 33rd Team - December 22nd, 2023
- Longevity Hacks Are Coming to Your Gym - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - December 22nd, 2023
- 106-year-old woman shares hobbies, habits she says helped longevity - Business Insider - December 22nd, 2023
- Tips to Improve Your Health & Longevity in the New Year - KATU - December 22nd, 2023
- NN Group gets 13bn longevity risk transfer with Prudential and Swiss Re - Reinsurance News - December 22nd, 2023
- A fresh perspective on longevity - savannahmagazine - December 22nd, 2023
- Este Lauder targets age reversal with Stanford Center on Longevity partnership - Cosmetics Business - December 22nd, 2023
- Longevity means taking a proactive approach to prevention - Longevity.Technology - December 22nd, 2023
- Decoding Longevity: Centenarian Traits and Aging Research - BNN Breaking - December 22nd, 2023
- Brain Age: The Science of Cognitive Longevity - BNN Breaking - December 22nd, 2023
- The Role of Exercise in Longevity: A Holistic Approach to Health and Fitness - Medriva - December 22nd, 2023
- Get interventions to market and to people faster and cheaper - Longevity.Technology - December 22nd, 2023
- Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests - May 17th, 2023
- The ingredients for a longer life - BBC Future - May 17th, 2023
- Life Expectancy by State 2023 - World Population Review - May 17th, 2023
- About Us - Fountain Life - May 17th, 2023
- Longevity: The Keys to Slow the Aging Process - Dr. Axe - March 29th, 2023
- "I got a 20-year contract. Giannis is going to play for 20 more years" - Mike Budenholzer on the longevity of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the... - January 23rd, 2023
- "I think Nadal has been doing a great job of that in the last four or five years": McEnroe believes Murray needs to shorten points for... - January 23rd, 2023
- Jon Voight is 'blessed' to have had such a long Hollywood career - Yakima Herald-Republic - November 7th, 2022
- USD Index to sink to 103 by end-2023 amid greater certainty and longevity of Dollar downtrend Westpac - FXStreet - November 7th, 2022
- Retirement Calculator | Northwestern Mutual - October 15th, 2022
- The Longevity Investors Conference Gstaad brought together longevity experts and deep-pocketed investors - Cointelegraph - October 15th, 2022
- Do you think ageing can be reversed? Here are 12 longevity startups to watch - Sifted - October 15th, 2022
- 'SNL' Gig Was a Risk Rob Lowe Credits for His Longevity: 'I Had People in My Life Telling Me - TheWrap - October 15th, 2022
- Wellness and longevity brand Serotonin Centers to open in Nashville - Tennessean - October 15th, 2022
- Lesley Stahl on longevity of '60 Minutes': 'That clock is still there' - USA TODAY - October 15th, 2022
- 4 Recipes With Corn, Beans, and SquashThe Three Sisters Ingredients That Blue Zone Centenarians in Costa Rica Eat Every Day - Well+Good - October 15th, 2022
- The Search for a Pill That Can Help Dogsand HumansLive Longer - WIRED - October 15th, 2022
- Supontis vs Dogecoin, Which Cryptocurrency Has Greater Longevity In The Market? - Coinpedia Fintech News - October 15th, 2022
- Louisville Zoo says goodbye to one of world's oldest gorillas - Evening News and Tribune - October 15th, 2022
- 'Prolong your lifespan': 5 'cheapest' foods that can boost longevity - Express - October 15th, 2022
- FOXO Technologies Announces First Distribution Partner and Begins Product Rollout in California; Expands Executive Team With Insurance Industry Talent... - October 15th, 2022
- Timeless: USM Arts and Sciences Faculty Members Ball, Meade Cite Love for Students, Teaching as Keys to Longevity in Profession - The University of... - October 15th, 2022
- The Best Workout To Slow Aging and Promote Longevity, Science Reveals Eat This Not That - Eat This, Not That - September 4th, 2022
- Share your story of loss or survival as part of The Longevity Project series on cancer - Summit Daily - September 4th, 2022
- Drinking two cups of tea a day is linked to boosted longevity - Women's Health UK - September 4th, 2022
- How the Asphalt Industry Can Improve Pavement Longevity - For Construction Pros - September 4th, 2022
- Longevity: Playing the Long Game in Ministry - The Gospel Coalition - September 4th, 2022
- Know 3 longevity secrets of the last USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev who died at the ripe age of 91 - Times Now - September 4th, 2022
- Tyrese Maxey Lauds LeBron James, Serena Williams, And Tom Brady For Their Longevity: "What Is In The Water Bron, Serena, And TB12... - September 4th, 2022
- 'There Should be Some Reward for Longevity in This Game'-Kiwi Pacer Wants Change In Central Contracts - News18 - September 4th, 2022