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Crunching the numbers: what are the real risks of dying from Covid-19? – Telegraph.co.uk

June 26th, 2020 4:50 pm

While the risks for young healthy people are comparatively low, other experts warn about reading too much into the data recorded during lockdown.

Dr Peter Ellis, a lecturer in molecular genetics and reproduction at the School of Biosciences at the University of Kent, notes that Sir Davids data represent only the residual risk not the natural one.

The reason relatively few people have died of Covid is because only a small percentage of the population have had the disease, he says

A more appropriate conclusion in my view would be to rejoice that the lockdown has done its job and thus kept the overall risk of death low.

Also, the fact that younger demographics are comparatively protected does not mean it is necessarily safe for younger people to mix more freely.

This may be true, but it does rely on our ability as a society to cocoon and protect more vulnerable demographics: a feat not achieved by any country so far, warns Dr Ellis.

In any calculation of mortality risks, it can be also misleading to compare infectious and non-infectious causes of death. Car accidents and bombing raids have very different characteristics to viruses and bacteria.

Infectious disease risk is socialised rather than individual, says Dr Ellis. My actions affect others' chances of death as well as my own.

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Crunching the numbers: what are the real risks of dying from Covid-19? - Telegraph.co.uk

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